Climate Change Models may not be Accurate

Climate Change Models may not be Accurate

Two scientists were researching rainfall patterns across during the last ice age when they found that none of the climate models they tested were able to reproduce their results.

Jessica Tierney of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Pedro DiNezio of the University of Hawaii were investigating preserved geological clues. Their research was aimed to determine how much it rained over the tropical and Pacific regions between 26,000 and 19,000 years ago.

The higher or lower isotopes of oxygen found in the specimens were like diaries into the history of the ocean's salinity. High salinity means less rain and low salinity means more rain.

Their findings suggested them the conditions over the Indo-Pacific was dryer during the last ice age. Wetter conditions prevailed on either side of it.

They compared their findings with 12 different mathematical climate models. These models simulate earth's climate using basic laws of physics, chemistry and fluid dynamics surrounding air-sea-land-ice interactions.

But to their surprise, only one model, developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in England, reproduced their results. The researchers said that the likely reason behind this is the model's limited ability to simulate the vertical air motions that lift humid air into the atmosphere. It is also known as convection.


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